What went unsuitable for Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas? A forensic audit

Article content material

Participant grades, Spherical Two

All of it occurred so quick. 2 weeks in the past the Edmonton Oilers entered their second spherical collection at Vegas Golden Knights on prime of their recreation, having misplaced simply 3 of their prior 21 contests. All of these defeats got here in extra time, that means it had been 53 days because the Oilers had final dropped a recreation in regulation time.

Article content material

Alas, it took them simply 12 days to build up the requisite 4 losses, all of them in regulation. Similar to that the Oilers’ Stanley Cup hopes had been snuffed in a 6-game ouster that left their loyal followers (and even a few of the disloyal ones) despondent. Devastated, even.

Commercial 2

Article content material

It was an attention-grabbing train to match Edmonton’s efficiency on this collection to the one earlier than, additionally 6 video games in size. As we wrote in an equal submit at the moment, they succeeded vs. the Kings by enjoying Oilers Hockey™. Statistically, their shot shares, capturing/save percentages and purpose shares nearly precisely mirrored their per-game outcomes over the course of the lengthy common season.

Clearly that components didn’t carry over to Spherical Two. What occurred?

Season to this point by phase

Video games 1 -10: 7-3-0, .700 | 4.1 GF, 3.2 GA | 33.4 SF, 33.8 SA | 1.028 PDO
Video games 11-20: 3-7-0, .300 | 2.5 GF, 4.0 GA | 30.4 SF, 34.6 SA | .964 PDO
Video games 21-30: 7-3-0, .700 | 4.3 GF, 3.0 GA | 31.7 SF, 31.3 SA | 1.040 PDO
Video games 31-40: 4-4-2, .500 | 3.3 GF, 3.1 GA | 33.2 SF, 28.9 SA | .992 PDO
Video games 41-50: 7-1-2, .800 | 4.5 GF, 2.8 GA | 36.7 SF, 31.0 SA | 1.032 PDO
Video games 51-60: 4-2-4, .600 | 4.3 GF, 3.6 GA | 36.0 SF, 32.4 SA | 1.008 PDO
Video games 61-70: 7-3-0, .700 | 4.4 GF, 3.4 GA | 29.5 SF, 32.3 SA | 1.044 PDO
Video games 71-80: 9-0-1, .950 | 4.4 GF, 2.2 GA | 36.4 SF, 28.9 SA | 1.045 PDO

Video games 1-82: 50-23-9, .665 | 3.96 GF, 3.12 GA | 33.6 SF, 31.4 SA | 1.018 PDO

Video games 1.1-1.6: 4-2, .667 | 4.17 GF, 3.33 GA | 35.3 SF, 33.5 GA | 1.018 PDO

Video games 2.1-2.6: 2-4, .333 | 3.17 GF, 3.67 GA | 33.2 SF, 29.5 SA | .971 PDO

Commercial 3

Article content material

By some measures the squad carried out OK. When expressed as a median, the Oilers suppressed photographs at a greater charge than they did in season or towards the Kings. Their 53% of photographs on purpose additionally represented a marginal enhance on seasonal charges within the 51-52 vary.

However … and also you knew this was coming … all of it fell aside within the percentages. The Oilers completed simply 9.5% of their photographs within the collection, practically 3 full factors beneath the Golden Knights. Edmonton’s PDO of .971 was by a ways the poorest they recorded in any phase since Video games 11-20, when their horrid .964 was a key contributor to a 3-7-0 run that was by far their worst of the season.

At the very least there’s a number of runway left after Sport 20. Whereas there are not any do-overs within the playoffs.

Particular groups weren’t the issue. Over the collection, Edmonton scored 9 powerplay objectives on 45 photographs in simply 35 minutes, a nifty 20% capturing share. Vegas on the opposite had scored simply 4 objectives on 41 photographs, with the Oilers including in a shorty as nicely.

It was at even energy the place the harm was carried out. Vegas received that battle 18 objectives to 9, together with 15-9 at 5v5, 1-0 at 4v4, and 2-0 at 6v6 (one goalie out). As soon as once more Edmonton had a slim benefit in photographs, 141-134, however transformed a dismal 6.4% of them into objectives in comparison with a whopping 13.4% by the Vegans. That provides as much as a .930 PDO at even energy, which is code for “polish up the golf golf equipment”.

Article content material

Commercial 4

Article content material

Whereas shot fashions are all nicely and good within the longer run, within the shorter time period from particular person video games to playoff collection it’s the odds which can be extra topic to wild swings. Not simply the Oilers both. New Jersey had a PDO of simply .945 in all conditions in falling to Carolina, whereas Toronto was .967 towards Florida. Each collection resulted in 5 video games. Edmonton’s .971 was marginally higher in a 6-game set. Among the many collection losers solely Seattle at .998 got here near break-even; additionally they got here closest to successful their collection, shedding 2-1 within the seventh recreation.

By our personal evaluation of probably the most harmful alternatives right here on the Cult of Hockey, the Oilers posted very related outcomes vs. Vegas as they’d vs. Los Angeles:

  • Grade A photographs: 95-79 vs. LAK, 93-76 vs. VGK
  • 5-alarm photographs: 42-35 vs. LAK, 46-39 vs. LAK

Persistently 55% throughout the board. Sufficient to win vs. the Kings, however not sufficient to topple the Golden Knights.

In the event you choose, let’s go away the numbers apart and easily work with the conclusions that may be drawn from them: not sufficient photographs made by the shooters; not sufficient stops made by the stoppers. That crude evaluation describes what went unsuitable for the Oilers to a T.

And to be honest, what went proper for the Vegans. They transformed their possibilities, and so they snuffed these of the Oilers with regularity. Credit score the place due, they acquired the job carried out in getting by the league’s most high-powered offence.

Commercial 5

Article content material

Turning to particular person efficiency, let’s start with these goaltenders.


Outstanding splits. There’s fairly a narrative to be advised right here, one which deserves a full submit (coming quickly).

The brief model is that Jack Campbell misplaced the boldness of the teaching employees this season with percentages of three.41, .888. Stuart Skinner remained the goalie of selection all through the playoffs regardless of stats of three.68, .883 for the two collection mixed, poorer than Campbell’s common season numbers by some margin.

Soup got here on no fewer than 4 occasions in reduction, 3 of them on this collection, and posted extraordinary numbers in 20-40 minute chunks. The coach, nonetheless, most popular a gentle eating regimen of Stu.


Evan Bouchard‘s coming-out celebration continued, as he led all NHL d-men in scoring for the second playoff spherical in a row. Each single one in all Bouchard’s 7 factors got here on the powerplay, as did 15 of his 17 factors over the two rounds mixed. In the meantime his 0 factors, -4 at even energy was lower than very best. Bouchard’s companion Mattias Ekholm was the most efficient d-man at even energy with 3 factors.

The opposite top-four pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci had been lit up at even energy whereas producing little or no offensively. Ceci was on for simply 1 purpose for, 8 towards, with by far the worst underlying numbers of the d-corps.

Commercial 6

Article content material

Certainly, it was Edmonton’s third pairing of Brett KulakVincent Desharnais and sometimes Philip Broberg who saved their heads above water at even energy, in fewer minutes towards lesser competitors, however acquired the job carried out. Desharnais had a really powerful Sport 1 however wasn’t on the ice for a single 5v5 purpose the remainder of the collection.


10 factors from Connor McDavid in Spherical One, 10 factors from McDavid in Spherical Two. 7 objectives from Leon Draisaitl in Spherical One, 6 objectives in Spherical Two. Enterprise as typical, proper?

Unsuitable. Whereas the powerplay saved buzzing alongside, the story right here is just not sufficient scoring at 5v5. As with Bouchard on the blue line, the primary unit powerplayers all hit at the least 7 factors within the collection, however after them the subsequent highest scorer on the workforce was Ekholm with 3 factors. Not one of the different forwards managed greater than 2, with poor purpose differentials in lots of instances.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had 6 assists within the collection, all on the powerplay, however simply 1-0-1 at 5v5, with some points on the defensive finish of the sheet as nicely. His 1-5 purpose differential at evens was disappointing to place it mildly.

Kailer Yamamoto had a very dismal collection with 0 objectives, 2 assists, a measly 4 photographs on internet, and a dash-6 plus/minus. His 18 PiM included a few pricey penalties. He spent about 50% of his even-strength time with Draisaitl, breaking even on photographs however shedding the purpose share 2-6. The opposite 50% was spent within the backside 6, the place the Oilers acquired simply 27% of the photographs (7 for, 19 towards in practically 40 minutes)
with an 0-2 purpose share.

Commercial 7

Article content material

Evander Kane continued to have a tricky time of it, enjoying with a damaged finger within the submit season, his third vital damage of a star-crossed season. The massive one being the laceration of his wrist again in November. Since he got here again from that bodily insult he performed 39 video games together with playoffs, scoring 14 objectives — primarily, a 30-goal charge — however simply 6 assists and a depressing -11. Within the Vegas collection, no objectives, simply 1 help and a 2-5 purpose differential at 5v5. Now take into account that Kane will probably be a 32-year-old energy ahead subsequent season, the identical age that James Neal was when he arrived in Edmonton in 2019 together with his personal multi-year contract north of $5 million AAV. How nicely Kane bounces again subsequent season will probably be enormous, however expertise tells us there are zero ensures.

Lastly, let’s revisit the efficiency of the depth strains, particularly Edmonton’s efficiency at 5v5 when each McDavid and Draisaitl are on the bench. Throughout the season the squad produced a wonderful 55% purpose share in these circumstances, upping it marginally to 57% in Spherical One. However towards the Golden Knights, the Oilers had been simply 3 for, 7 towards for a 30% purpose share with out both of the 97-29 axis on the ice. Ouch.

Participant grades

We shut in our typical style by reviewing the set of 10 6 video games via the lens of our personal subjective rankings right here on the  Cult of Hockey. Common readers will know that we grade on a scale of 1 to 10, the efficiency of each Edmonton Oilers participant in each recreation the workforce performs, primarily based on a mixture of remark and interpretation of statistical output. Listed here are common grades for the Vegas collection together with our customary thumbnail remark summarizing every participant’s contribution over that span:

Commercial 8

Article content material

Outcomes by grader, tenth phase:

  • Kurt Leavins – 1 recreation, 0-1, common grade 4.4
  • David Staples – 3 video games, 1-2, common grade 5.8
  • Bruce McCurdy — 2 video games, 1-1, common grade 6.0
  • Phase totals – 6 video games, 2-4, common grade 5.6
  • Phase evaluate, Playoff Spherical One
  • Phase evaluate, Video games 71-80
  • Phase evaluate, Video games 61-70
  • Phase evaluate, Video games 51-60
  • Phase evaluate, Video games 41-50
  • Phase evaluate, Video games 31-40
  • Phase evaluate, Video games 21-30
  • Phase evaluate, Video games 11-20
  • Phase evaluate, Video games 1-10

Lately on the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: Holland, Woodcroft talk about Oilers’ demise

STAPLES: 4 huge identify Oilers underneath the gun for poor playoffs

McCurdy: Participant grades in elimination Sport 6

LEAVINS: 9 Issues

STAPLES: Unhealthy break, unhealthy name, unhealthy penalties drop Oilers in Sport 5

Observe me on Twitter @BruceMcCurdy

Article content material


Postmedia is dedicated to sustaining a vigorous however civil discussion board for dialogue and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Feedback might take as much as an hour for moderation earlier than showing on the positioning. We ask you to maintain your feedback related and respectful. Now we have enabled electronic mail notifications—you’ll now obtain an electronic mail in the event you obtain a reply to your remark, there may be an replace to a remark thread you comply with or if a consumer you comply with feedback. Go to our Group Pointers for extra data and particulars on easy methods to modify your electronic mail settings.

Be a part of the Dialog

Commercial 1