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Where he performed just fine. Individually he saw his scoring rates take a very nice jump, from 0.56 to 0.84 Goals/60 at 5v5 and from 1.29 top a very respectable 1.86 Points/60. That was 8th among Oilers forwards, third line production; but ranked 149th of the 382 attackers who played 500 5v5 minutes. That’s a second-line rate
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While arrows pointed mostly in the right direction, It was an up-and-down season for McLeod, sometimes both at once. He spearheaded a spectacular third period comeback at Madison Square Garden with a trio of third-period assists, only to suffer an injury before that period was out.

His best run came early in 2023 when he fired home 7 goals in 12 games. For that run he seemed to find his mojo around the net, but it was fleeting. In his other 45 games he scored just 4 times. At times it seemed his feet were too fast for his hands, or his head, as good chances went to waste.

His worst moment came before family and friends in his home town of Toronto on Hockey Night in Canada when he coughed up the puck right in front of his own net. Mitch Marner accepted the gift and immediately converted it into a goal with a move so brilliant it was on the highlight reels for weeks thereafter, McLeod’s gaffe embedded in the sequence. Tough one for the kid.

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But overall trends were good. His per-game ice time rose by 10% at even strength and by nearly 50% on the penalty kill, where he was a regular on the second unit.

According to PuckIQ.com, at 5v5 McLeod played 129 minutes against Elite opposition; 258 against Middle and 258 against Grit for a perfect 20/40/40 split. He’s not yet at the point where he sees a steady diet of the toughs; that said, he’s still 23 years old, and he doesn’t yet get paid as much as a million bucks a year.

That’s about to change. McLeod has been very patient in waiting his turn.

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Finally in 2023, McLeod has some leverage of his own. He has the right to file for arbitration this summer, thus accelerating the negotiation process. Last year young forwards Puljujarvi and Yamamoto had their first crack at it and both filed for arbitration. In both instances their cases were settled quickly, as Ken Holland sidestepped the arb process entirely and signed both before their hearing dates, with a healthy raise in each case.

McLeod can expect a raise as well, though surely not into the $3 million range as happened with both JP and KY. He does not yet have the statistical résumé of those former first-round picks, who had played 259 and 186 NHL games respectively with 40+ career goals apiece at the time their arbitration hearings were scheduled. McLeod has just 138 GP and 20 goals.

Still he’s built a solid foundation over his 2 full NHL seasons as, at minimum, a reliable bottom sixer. That in itself is not worth $3 million or anywhere close in the current market. But surely it’s worth somewhere north of $1 million, with a premium if a second year is tacked on.

Ideally, this will get done in June before the machinations of qualifying offers and arbitration filings ever come into play. It’s Ken Holland’s job to walk the tightrope to find the appropriate figure that will both satisfy the player yet leave the GM with as much cap space as possible.